I’m less afraid of a civil war and more afraid that paramilitaries will form at some point in the near future (not by August). I can see the US having its own version of the Troubles and despite the FBI doing all its surveillance it won’t be enough to stop it. Especially if local PDs side with one paramilitary over another which will drag on such a long simmering era of terror.
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Honestly, if we’re waiting for a civil war like we saw in 1861, that’s not what warfare looks like anymore. Syria, Ethiopia, Afghanistan - that’s what civil war is like now. We’re already in it, I’d argue - although not as widespread as in those countries yet.
It’s probably controversial to say this, but I’d argue that we’re in a world war right now and have been for a while. People dismiss it as a “regional” conflict or not a “proper” war because it’s not a nation-state via a nation-state, but given that elements have been globalized via “terrorism” (more properly acts of asymmetrical warfare), by various groups (everyone from the Islamists extremists to white supremacists groups), this is a world war that the pandemic seems to have abated to some degree, but it’s still going. We’re leaving Afghanistan and President Biden will no doubt point to this as the “end of the war on terror”, but it’s still happening.
But that’s my $.02…
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We’re in a cold war for sure. And it’s not a stretch to call it a world war. There’s many contestants in this struggle with common goals in mind. The US wants to keep its hegemony. Russia/Putin wants to restore some of the USSR/Russian-Empire but not with all the weaknesses. China/Xi want to regain old assets like Taiwan and much of pre-Republic nations into sphere like Vietnam and Mongolia. And much more. I mean we can talk about Modi and the dangers of Hindu nationalism and the potential genocide and/or displacement of Islamic Indians. Basically, it’s a hellworld timeline.
What scares me is how few people notice this stuff beyond historians and geopolitical nerds. It’s not like it’s hidden. It’s just dressed up a little different.
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I’m arguing we’re in an active, hot war, but it’s just not a war like we think of - I think for many of us who grew up with WW2 vets for Grandparents (or maybe Vietnam Vets for parents), we still have the whole structure of global warfare as the stand in for war itself. But I think that the many wars of the Cold War itself changed the nature of warfare permanently. And much like the CW, the tensions between the US and USSR were not the location of warfare itself, but the cause of warfare elsewhere. I’d argue the same is in play now, but with China in the mix. At the end of the day, though, all three powers benefit from chaos that they create via their international policies, which include economic policies and military ones.
Propaganda of the necessity of these policies are pretty powerful. Many buy into the “common wisdom” of how we have no other choice and accept what the media tells them about what’s happening, sadly.
Let me recommend a couple of books:
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Their “Militia” if full of old men, fat gravy SEALs who couldn’t make it up the Capitol steps without an oxygen mask, and people who are too mentally unstable to actually be let out in public. I hope they have a false sense of how many military members would jump in to the fracas on their behalf. Most should remember their oath to the country, not one incoherent, yellow haired dumba$$.
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Stealing that.
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Boy, have I been missing all the fun.
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They don’t have to.
The Fascists in D.C. & a number of State Legislatures are doing their damnedest to turn this place into a de facto One Party State. The SCOTUS is actively aiding & abetting those efforts.
They are already the American Taliban.
They broke the mold & beat the shit out of the Mold-Maker.
Makes sense.
Proxy wars have been happening for a long time, & they don’t always involve bullets.
Sure enough. Money can go a long way towards winning hearts & minds without firing a shot.
China, for example, is doing lots of infrastructure work in Africa [which, ironically, Wal-Mart shoppers are helping to finance…].
_ _
Eons ago, I had a retired Air Force guy for a boss. One thing he told me has stuck with me all these years:
‘Never assume that we are always the Good Guys’.
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True, but I’m arguing that it’s not just proxy wars. This is not just about powers in the global north playing puppet masters (and really hasn’t been entirely that - see the books I suggested to @armozel above), but about globally interconnected networks fighting each other, nation-states, etc. And it’s not just the US, Russia, and China trying to control smaller combatants, but the Saudis and Iranians.
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Y’all Quaeda…
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There is also the special unit made of these bozos, Meal Team Six
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This makes me wonder if one could say the Libyan invasion was the opening salvo of that conflict. I say this because I remember listening to BBC Worldservice a couple weeks before the invasion happened and they basically reported how France was complaining about gas prices and the oil being cut off from them in Libya. I know it’s a stretch to put a specific event or date as the starting point but I like figuring this stuff out even though it’s really tangential to this thread. 
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To the contrary, Obama’s presidency has absolutely accelerated hostilities. White America lost it’s damn mind (more loudly and officially than before) and elected a wanna-be fascist. Just because total war didn’t erupt during Obama’s term doesn’t mean it won’t be significant marker of deepening conflict.
It this year became fashionable among right wing government officials do deny the Jan 6th insurrection. Right wing extremists before Obama had no idea how high up support went for their fascism, and at every turn they’ve seen more and more extreme behavior not only tolerated but incorporated into public discourse. The emboldening has been exponential. they’re finding themselves, eachother and their voice right now. It’s only going to get louder.
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I’d say it goes back further, though I think that what happened in Libya brought the whole thing into starker relief… That and Yemen’s struggles. 9/11 was sort of the announcement that this conflict was happening, but I’d argue it really came out of the first invasion of Iraq…
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I don’t think he was a ‘wanna be’.
I’m an Old White Dude, & I didn’t vote for the bastid… although I probably look like someone who did.
‘Same song, second verse. A little bit louder & a little bit worse.’
The biggest mistake the nimrods are making is assuming their prey is unarmed & helpless.
For example, a pair of Lineman’s Pliers makes it easy to jerk the Valve Stems out of the wheels of their Monster Truck.
Can’t go far on four flat tires…
If that’s the case, then we started it.
Saddam told our Ambassdor about his concerns about Kuwait drilling for oil under Iraq.
He was told, in effect: ‘Do what you want to do to fix it. It’s none of our concern.’
Of course, the second invasion was based on lies, but at least the MIC got to try out their new toys, & the bankers profited as always.
ETA: lotsa stuff
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I don’t think either of us are making that arguement.
It’s far more complicated than what passes for ‘news’…
Those seem like interesting books, & I am glad the libraries around here are opening up again.
It all boils down to who gets to contol the money flow…
With a side of Ideology & a big dollop of Propaganda on the side.
And the Indians & Pakistanis putting a nice chunk of instability into the mix on another front.
At least the continents of Africa & South America are relatively quiet.
Not saying they are quiet at all, just that they are being drowned out.
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Empire’s not going to maintain itself…
I don’t think it’s just about money, though.
Or purposefully ignored, because we crave a simplified narrative…
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“Meal Team 6” would soon be D.O.A.
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Sure, but the vast majority of Americans don’t consider us to be one.
I did mention Ideology, & that can cover religion, political philosophy, etc… but I probably should have used the term ‘economics’ instead of ‘money’.
Can’t discount Greed & Lust for Power as motivations, either.
But I would argue that Economics is the primary factor.
Some people do, for whatever reasons. The news media in this country is damn near useless, anyway. You pretty much have to rely on outside sources for info in those regions.
Doesn’t mean it’s not true.
I’d argue it’s more about control than economics.
Many do because it’s generally uncomfortable and decenters us from the discussion. Many of the factors are not driven by the power players, but by others and that means we’re not in as control of the planet as we like to believe, even as we’re part of driving it.
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